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都市経済学研究会

場所:京都大学経済研究所 本館1階 第二共同研究室 【アクセス】
(変更のある場合は別に記載いたします。)

 

時間:3時~6時(時間変更のある場合は別に記載いたします。)

 

世話人

文世一 (京都大学大学院経済学研究科) [HP]
森知也 (京都大学経済研究所) [HP]
大澤実 (京都大学経済研究所)
[HP]
町北朋洋 (京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所)
[HP]
松島格也 (京都大学大学院工学研究科)
[HP]
山本和博 (大阪大学大学院経済学研究科)
松尾美和 (神戸大学経済経営研究所)
[HP]

 

連絡先

TEL:075-753-7120(秘書・中村) FAX:075-753-7198

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カテゴリ
日時
タイトル
報告者/場所
詳細
2022/02/04 (金)
16:30〜18:00
Scalable spatiotemporal regression model based on Moran's eigenvectors (with Y. Asami, H. Baba, C. Shimizu)
西颯人(東京大学・院)
京都大学経済研究所本館1階 第二共同研究室/オンライン開催

【オンライン研究会参加申込み】

(お申し込み内容確認後、後日Zoom IDおよびパスワードをe-mailにて送付します。)

 

要旨:We propose a scalable regression model with spatially and temporally varying co- efficients based on Moran’s eigenvectors and efficient computation algorithms. Regression models that consider spatiotemporal non-stationarity are important because many real-world datasets, such as housing prices, are tied to geographical and tempo- ral locations. Although geographically weighted regression (GWR) and its variants are widely used to model spatially varying coefficients, they cannot handle large datasets. We employ an alternative modelling method of spatially varying coefficients based on Moran’s eigenvectors and extend it to handle large spatiotemporal datasets. Additionally, we introduce a scalable learning algorithm that exploits the model structures based on the Kalman filter and the expectation—maximisation algorithm. Our scalable algorithm is efficient even for large datasets that cannot be handled by GWR. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, we applied it to a housing market dataset collected in Tokyo, Japan. The results show that the predictive performance of the proposed model is comparable to that of GWR while increasing the computational speed. Moreover, larger datasets can accelerate the algorithm convergence.

2022/01/07 (金)
16:30〜18:00
On the impact of telecommuting on cities (with S. Kichiko and J.-F. Thisse)
後閑利隆(ジェトロ・アジア経済研究所)
オンライン開催

要旨: We study the impact of telecommuting in a monocentric city which produces (i) a tradable consumption good using skilled and unskilled labor and (ii) a non-tradable consumer service provided by unskilled workers at the city center to the skilled workers. Commuting costs are proportional to wages. When the WFH share is low, the skilled reside near the CBD and all workers earn more under WFH. By contrast, a high WFH share lowers both wages and leads the skilled to reside in the suburbs. Telecommuting leads to lower urban costs in the latter case, but not in the former. We then consider two cities that have different productivities. WFH allows skilled workers of the more productive city to reside in the less productive city where housing is cheaper while keeping their job in the more productive city. The flow of this type of inter-city commuters first increases and, then, decreases with the WFH share. Likewise, skilled workers of the less productive city may take a job in the more productive city while keeping their residence in the less productive city. The flow of the second type of inter-city commuters increases with the WFH share. For these commuting patterns to arise, the two employment centers must be connected by a link that allows workers to travel at relatively low costs.

2021/12/10 (金)
16:30〜18:00
COVID-19流行の地理的要因の解明に向けたポアソン回帰の高度化
村上大輔(統計数理研究所)
京都大学経済研究所本館1階 第二共同研究室/オンライン開催

要旨:COVID-19が猛威を振るう昨今、感染拡大に寄与した要因を明らかにすることは喫緊の課題となっている。陽性者数や死者数の分析には、ポアソン回帰やその拡張手法が用いられてきた。しかしながら、ポアソン回帰には次の課題が残されている:(i)ゼロ値の多いカウントデータの場合は解が識別できず、この問題はモデルが複雑化するほど深刻化する;(ii)そもそも陽性者数や死者数がポアソン分布に従うとは限らない。そこで本研究では、課題(i)(ii)に対処することで、多種多様な要因の影響を安定的に推定するための新たな回帰手法を開発する。同開発では、課題(i)に対処するための新たな対数線形近似を提案し、次に課題(ii)に対処するためのデータ分布の自動推定手法を提案する。最後に、開発した手法をCOVID-19の地理的要因の分析に応用することで、人流、世代、政策などの各種要因の感染拡大に対する影響を評価する。

2021/11/12 (金)
16:30〜18:00
不動産の流動性からみる都市の姿
馬塲弘樹(京都大学)
京都大学経済研究所本館1階 第二共同研究室/オンライン開催

要旨:所有権移転登記は、不動産の変化を捕捉する際、包括的かつ正確な情報を有している。本報告では不動産の流動に着目し、移転登記目的別の流動量の空間的傾向や人口増減などの要因との相関関係を考察する。全体的な傾向として、移転登記件数は都市圏規模に比例する一方で、大規模災害などの事象によりその流動性を増加させる自治体も存在した。さらに、移転登記と地域環境変数との対応から、登記目的によって両者の相関の程度が異なることが明らかになった。上記の知見に加えて、本報告では国勢調査小地域単位あるいは3次メッシュ単位での追加分析も加え、考察を深める。このような不動産流動の理解は、土地・建物の管理の限界や、国庫へ帰属すべき土地の検討などにも関連すると考えられ、更なる分析を通して政策的含意へとつながる研究へ発展させる予定である。

 

《参考資料》

馬塲弘樹, 眞木仁, 高野佳佑, 清水千弘. 2021. 所有権移転登記情報からみた不動産市場の流動性—不動産流動統計を用いた分析—. CSIS Discussion Paper, 173.

2021/10/29 (金)
16:30〜18:00
Consumption access and the spatial concentration of economic activity: Evidence from smartphone data
中島賢太郎(一橋大学)
京都大学経済研究所本館1階 第二共同研究室/オンライン開催

要旨:Using smartphone data for Japan, we show that non-commuting trips are frequent, more localized than commuting trips, strongly related to the availability of nontraded services, and occur along trip chains. Guided by these empirical findings, we develop a quantitative urban model that incorporates travel to work and travel to consume non-traded services. We use the gravity equation predictions of the model to estimate theoretically-consistent measures of travel access. We show that consumption access makes a substantial contribution to the observed variation in residents and land prices and the observed impact of the opening of a new subway line.

配布資料:論文, 付録

2021/09/24 (金)
16:30〜18:00
The core-periphery model under additively separable preferences(with C. Wang and X. Zhu)
曽道智(東北大学)
オンライン開催

要旨:This paper revisits the core-periphery model of Krugman (1991) when his CES utility is replaced by a general additively separable sub-utility which captures the income effect and allows variable markups. New evolving paths and bifurcation patterns are created by the interaction between the agglomeration force generated by monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, trade cost and the dispersion force resulting from the pro-competitive effect. Autarky does not necessarily produce full dispersion and free trade may not correspond to agglomeration. Moreover, the demand parameter of manufactured goods is crucial to determining the firm location.

2021/09/03 (金)
16:30〜18:00
Simple vs optimal: Public transport and shared mobility pricing
Jan-Dirk Schmoecker(京都大学)
オンライン開催

要旨:This talk will firstly review observed trends among public transport operators regarding fare polices and discuss that both simplification and “optimisation by differentiation” trends exist. If revenue and demand management optimal fares are desired, also in urban settings distance and route depending fares are increasingly an option due to new data collection technologies. This leads to modelling challenges such “hyperpaths with non-additive costs” which will be discussed in the second part. In the third part then the impact of new transport forms, in particular shared transport and “cheap taxis” is discussed. The competition and collaboration potential will be highlighted. The talk will close with some thoughts on how electrification of the transport system and vehicle to grid services might also impact fares and revenues.

2021/07/16 (金)
16:30〜18:00
Efficient policy with firm heterogeneity and variable markups
田所篤(大阪大学・院)
オンライン開催

要旨:In their model of monopolistic competition with firm heterogeneity and variable markups, Nocco, Ottaviano, and Salto (2014) show firm heterogeneity and markup pricing create distortions at market equilibrium, which can be removed by a first-best policy if a firm-specific per-unit tax/subsidy is available. This study provides an alternative first-best policy without adopting a firm-specific tax/subsidy. The first-best outcome can be decentralized through a uniform ad valorem production tax and a uniform per-unit production subsidy, accompanied by a lump-sum tax on consumers. This indicates that policymakers can design the first-best policy without observing firm private information in terms of productivity.

2021/07/02 (金)
16:30〜18:00
License to drive: The effect of state driver’s licensing laws on the travel of unauthorized immigrants
Andrew Schouten(立命館大学)
オンライン開催

要旨:Most metropolitan areas in the U.S. have been developed around the automobile, making driving essential to accessing opportunities.  Despite high rates of driving, some adults do not drive.  A majority of non-drivers face significant barriers to driving, one of which is state driver’s license regulations that deny driving privileges to unauthorized immigrants. However, 15 states and the District of Columbia have adopted laws allowing unauthorized immigrants to acquire driver licenses and, therefore, to legally drive.  In this study, we draw on annual data from the American Community Survey from 2006 to 2018 to examine the relationship between the adoption of state driver’s licensing laws for unauthorized immigrants and changes in automobile commuting and commuting by public transit.  We focus on unauthorized Latinx immigrants in California, the state with the largest percentage of unauthorized residents.  We then test to see whether the effects are similar in other states that have recently adopted comparable driver’s licensing regulations. Many unauthorized immigrants in California have obtained driver’s licenses through Assembly Bill 60 (AB 60) allowing them to drive legally. Our analysis shows that AB 60 had a small positive effect on auto commuting and a small negative effect on transit commuting among unauthorized Latinx immigrants in California but, likely, little or no effect in states outside of California. Combined with its role in reducing hit and run accidents and potentially easing immigrants’ fears of police stops, the evidence suggests that AB 60 has contributed to the enhanced mobility and safety of unauthorized immigrants and their families.

2021/06/11 (金)
16:30〜18:00
都市交通シミュレーションで生じたべき分布
楳本大悟(神戸大学)
オンライン開催

要旨:神戸市全体の大規模交通シミュレーションを実行した結果、交通量に対して道の本数をプロットすると、冪的な関係に従うことが明らかとなった。その起源について数学的なモデルを立て、冪的な分布が生じた理由について考察する。また、阪神高速のETCデータを分析したところ、ODには強固な規則性が存在することが示唆されたが、2020年にはCOVID19の影響により規則性が破れている様子が観察されたため、これについても報告する。

《参考資料》

Umemoto and Ito, Journal of Computational Social Science, 2018

Umemoto and Ito, Journal of Computational Social Science, 2019

 

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