要旨：We present a macro-finance model with innovation and knowledge spillover. Skilled agents engage in R&D activities (establish firms) or work in the knowledge-intensive sector. Unskilled agents work in the traditional sector. Knowledge spillover from innovations to the two sectors is initially high and uneven (unbalanced growth), but eventually weakens and equalizes (balanced growth). A rational stock bubble (prices exceed fundamentals) necessarily emerges, even though it is expected to burst with regime switching. Despite the inevitable collapse, stock bubbles and technological innovation reinforce each other and lead to permanently higher output and wages because technologies developed during the bubble era prevail.

Abstract: This study investigates why inflation converges only slowly to its target by combining laboratory experiments with structural estimation. We create a laboratory environment in which subjects act as firms and set prices under Calvo-type stickiness, where profits are determined as a weighted average of competitors’ prices and an exogenously given aggregate price. The experimental results show that both higher aggregate inflation and stronger strategic complementarity hinder convergence to the theoretical equilibrium under rational expectations. Using Bayesian MCMC estimation, we systematically compare subjects’ behavior with rational-expectations predictions, allowing for small deviations motivated by bounded rationality. The results reveal that subjects overestimate strategic complementarity, which contributes to delayed inflation convergence.

Abstract: This paper develops an analytical framework for heterogeneous agent models with household-level heterogeneity in labor productivity and wealth returns, accommodating both growth and business cycle dynamics. I establish the existence of moment-recursive competitive equilibrium (MRCE), where aggregate dynamics depend only on aggregate capital and wealth-idiosyncratic state covariances. The framework yields three key insights: (i) distributional covariances create state-dependent aggregate dynamics through novel channels; (ii) idiosyncratic return risks are priced via their wealth covariance; (iii) equilibrium outcomes are invariant to individual beliefs about aggregates, eliminating expectation formation concerns. This framework enables unified analysis of growth, business cycles, inequality dynamics, and their interactions.

Abstract: https://github.com/QuantEcon/kyoto_2025

Abstract: Over the past three decades China and India have experienced rapid growth and structural transformation. Underneath this similarity however is one significant difference: rural-urban wage gaps during this period declined in India, but widened in China. We formalize a two-sector-two-location model in which structural transformation and urbanization respond endogenously to productivity shocks. While the structural transformation effect widens the rural-urban wage gap, the urbanization effect reduces it. We attribute the contrasting wage gap dynamics in the two countries to the higher costs of urban relocation for workers in China.