要旨：本報告では、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所（社人研）で実施した「日本の将来推計人口（令和5年推計）」の推計手法と結果について報告する。前半では、公的推計の役割と方法論（人口投影という考え方、社会経済変数との関わり）、推計時点以降の年齢別人口の推計に必要な年齢別生残率の仮定（死亡仮定）、国際人口移動数（率）の仮定、そして、0歳人口の推計に必要な女性の年齢別出生率の仮定（出生仮定）の設定方法について説明する。後半では、2020年を基準人口とし、2070年まで推計された人口および年齢構成、人口動態数、日本人、外国人別の構成、機械的に仮定条件を変えた条件付き推計の結果を示す。前回推計よりも出生率仮定は低下するものの、平均寿命が延伸し、外国人の入国超過が増加することで、人口減少の進行はわずかに緩和される見込みとなった。出生中位（死亡中位）推計にもとづけば、2070年の日本は、総人口は現在の７割に減少し、65歳以上人口はおよそ４割を占め、外国人人口割合が1割を超える社会となる。

Abstract：Exploiting variation across Swedish local labor markets between 1986 and 2018, I estimate that individuals are less likely to start new firms and switch employers in an older labor market. To account for these patterns, I propose an equilibrium theory of growth with frictional labor markets. On the one hand, workforce aging raises the level of output by increasing the share of people who have found a good match with existing production technologies. On the other hand, the higher opportunity cost of switching to new technologies discourages their introduction. The offsetting level and growth effects result in high growth through the 1990s, even though the rate at which new technologies are introduced declines monotonically since the 1970s. I estimate that it will be suppressed for the next 30 years. The lower growth rate in the older economy lowers welfare for labor market entrants, but raises the value of the high-productive jobs typically held by older individuals.

Abstract：Using household survey data for the U.S. and Australia, we quantify the role of taxes and transfers in providing consumption insurance against income risk. While the two countries differ substantially in their degree of tax and transfer progressivity and the extent to which it reduces the variability of disposable income, we find using a semi-structural model of income, net taxes, and consumption that the overall role of taxes and transfers in affecting the elasticity of consumption with respect to permanent income shocks is similar, with an estimated 5.4 percentage point reduction for the U.S. versus 4.8 for Australia. We interpret this result using a stylized life-cycle model with incomplete markets. Counterfactual analysis for a calibrated version of the structural model shows that, while higher progressivity increases the role of taxes in providing consumption insurance, these effects are partially mitigated by less self-insurance given higher marginal tax rates. The level of wealth relative to income also reduces the effects of progressivity on consumption insurance. Thus, higher wealth-to-income ratios in Australia can explain why, despite higher progressivity, the impact of taxes and transfers on consumption insurance is similar to the U.S.

要旨：　Diagnostic tests for regression discontinuity design face a size-control problem. We document a massive over-rejection of the identifying restriction among empirical studies in the top five economics journals. At least one diagnostic test was rejected for 21 out of 60 studies, whereas less than 5% of the collected 799 tests rejected the null hypotheses. In other words, more than one-third of the studies rejected at least one of their diagnostic tests, whereas their underlying identifying restrictions appear valid. Multiple testing causes this problem because the median number of tests per study was as high as 12. Therefore, we offer unified tests to overcome the size-control problem. Our procedure is based on the new joint asymptotic normality of local polynomial mean and density estimates. In simulation studies, our unified tests outperformed the Bonferroni correction.

＜Workshop on Search and Platform ご案内＞

日時：2024年10月29日（火）8:55-16:50
会場：CIGS会議室もしくは新丸ビルコンファレンススクエア　Room 901
（東京都千代田区丸の内1-5-1 新丸ビル 9F）
https://www.marunouchi.com/page/access/access_shinmaru/

参加費：無料
言語：英語 ≪同時通訳はありません≫

オーガナイザー：渡辺誠（京都大学経済研究所、CIGS 上席研究員）

プログラムのURL：こちらをご参照ください。

＜登録方法＞
参加希望の方は、以下の申込フォームからご登録ください。（締切：10月17日）
https://forms.gle/NGCjz68StjaQUAe87

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＊資料の配布はございませんので、必要な場合はご自身の端末をご持参いただき、
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南幸子
一般財団法人キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
〒100-6511　東京都千代田区丸の内1-5-1
　　　　　　　　 新丸の内ビルディング11F
TEL:03-6213-0550　FAX:03-3217-1251
minami.sachiko@canon-igs.org

——————————————————————————-

<The Workshop on Search and Platform>
Date：2024, October 29th（Tuesday）8:55-16:50
Location: CIGS meeting room or Shin-Marunouchi Building Room 901, SHIN-MARU CONFERENCE SQUARE, 9th Floor
(1-5-1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo)
https://www.marunouchi.com/en/building/shinmaru/information-access/

Participation Fee：Free
Capacity: 35 participants *The registration will be closed if we receive too many applications.
Organizer: Makoto Watanabe (CIGS senior researcher)

Link：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iqb9wUNZ6JFcIOyg8zd-anuWSbv_NxkL/view

<How to register>
If you wish to participate in this conference, please register through the following application form. (Application Deadline: October 17)
https://forms.gle/NGCjz68StjaQUAe87

After your registration is complete, you will receive an auto-reply from the form.
If you do not receive the email, please check your spam mail folder.
If you want to change some items after your registration, please email us with the detailed information.

[CIGS Secretariat] (Reception hours: 9:00-17:30 on weekdays)
TEL: +81-3-6213-0550 (Representative)
Mail: minami.sachiko@canon-igs.org