Abstract: Going beyond the New Economic Geography focus on progress in transportation cost, this paper introduces the dynamic effect of environmental technology on residential location in long-run spatial equilibrium. It develops a model with two regions in which a spatial public good (environmental quality) is degraded by externalities of differentiated private consumption goods, but degradation is abated by those of a single private environmental good. Producing the imperfectly tradable consumption goods requires both mobile workers and immobile workers, while the perfectly tradable environmental good requires only immobile workers. Mobile workers’ location choices are explained by regional disparities in environmental quality and price indexes, rather than in wages. Progress in transportation technology dynamically improves freeness of trade, but progress in environmental technology has the opposite effect. Dispersion occurs when progress in transportation technology dominates, while greater progress in abatement technology may lead to agglomeration.

17:00-17:45 “Parties’ Appeal and Asymmetric Elite Polarization” 尾崎夢輝 (京都大学)

17:45-18:30 “Conditional Value at Risk Maximizing Auction” 松下旦（京都大学）

Title: Scalable Estimation of Multinomial Response Models with Random Consideration Sets (with Siddhartha Chib)

Abstract: A common assumption in the fitting of unordered multinomial response models for J mutually exclusive categories is that the responses arise from the same set of J categories across subjects. However, when responses measure a choice made by the subject, it is more appropriate to condition the distribution of multinomial responses on a subject-specific consideration set, drawn from the power set of {1,2,…,J}. This leads to a mixture of multinomial response models governed by a probability distribution over the J* = 2^J -1 consideration sets. We introduce a novel method for estimating such generalized multinomial response models based on the fundamental result that any mass distribution over J* consideration sets can be represented as a mixture of products of J component specific inclusion-exclusion probabilities. Moreover, under time-invariant consideration sets, the conditional posterior distribution of consideration sets is sparse. These features enable a scalable MCMC algorithm for sampling the posterior distribution of parameters, random effects, and consideration sets. Under regularity conditions, the posterior distributions of the marginal response probabilities and the model parameters satisfy consistency. The methodology is demonstrated in a longitudinal data set on weekly cereal purchases that cover J = 101 brands, a dimension substantially beyond the reach of existing methods.

Abstract:
This paper provides novel nonparametric methods for estimation and uniform inference of optimal policy allocation rules and the resulting welfare. The original problem is formulated as a partially identified model, which entails non-standard asymptotics. We show that employing a surrogate risk function ensures point identification of a representing function, thereby enabling tractable asymptotic analysis based on Gaussian approximations. We propose a two-step cross-fitting procedure for estimating the nonparametric optimal policy, which achieves the standard nonparametric convergence rate and admits standard Gaussian approximations for inference. Leveraging these results and coupling principles, we develop a new method for nonparametric inference on both the optimal policy and the associated welfare. We also emphasize that the limiting distribution of the welfare estimator admits a Gaussian approximation, supported by the stochastic equicontinuity of the policy function estimator.

Chiaki Hara (Kyoto university)
“Shareholder Engagement in an ESG-CAPM with Incomplete Markets: Much ado about nothing?” (joint with Thorsten Hens)

Jonathan Newton (Kyoto University)
“Conventions in large random games” (joint with Ryoji Sawa)

要旨：　Exclusion and shape restrictions are crucial for defining causal effects, understanding individual heterogeneity, and interpreting estimators in potential outcome models. This paper is concerned with characterizing the empirical content of such restrictions. To date, the testable implications of these restrictions have been studied on a case-by-case basis within a limited set of models. Using a novel graph-based representation of the model, we provide a systematic approach to deriving sharp testable implications of general support restrictions. We illustrate the proposed approach in simulations and an empirical application.

要旨：This paper develops new theoretical insights into how sectoral trade costs and demand patterns shape specialization and wage levels across locations. It presents two key results. First, locations with stronger demand for sectors with low trade costs command higher wage levels, conditional on productivity and population size. Second, contrary to conventional interpretations, higher wages—rather than larger market size—drive specialization in sectors with high trade costs. This pattern arises not from trade cost savings, but from stronger incentives for firms in low-trade-cost sectors to reduce production costs in order to compete across locations. Existing models have overlooked firms’ strategic incentive to locate production in smaller markets, where trade barriers weaken competitive pressures. These results arise under monopolistic competition and extend to models with perfect competition and external scale economies.