計量経済学
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This paper investigates limit theory for the likelihood analysis of
an I (2) cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model in the presence of
deterministic shifts. A log likelihood ratio (log LR) test statistic for
integration indices is considered, and it is demonstrated that the
asymptotic distribution of the statistic is given in the form of a
generalised Dicky-Fuller type distribution. A log LR test statistic for
restrictions on long-run and slope coefficients is also investigated, and
it is proved that the statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed.
Finally, an empirical analysis of macroeconomic data in Japan is performed
using the I(2) VAR model subject to a deterministic shift.