要旨：土地利用モデルのパラメータは，実用上の問題により、いくつかの段階に分けて推定・キャリブレートされることが多い。しかし、理論的には一括で推定することが望ましく、ゆえに現状の推定手法の信頼性は定かでない。そこで、ベイズ法により全パラメータを一括で推定することを試みた。具体的には、素朴な土地利用モデルに対して、パラメータ推定、変数選択、現況再現性の確認、感度分析を行った。さらに、集積の経済の概念を導入したモデルへの拡張可能性も検討・検証した。推定結果や従来手法との比較から、ベイズ法を用いた推定手法の将来性が示唆された。

《発表論文》

要旨：Older people are less mobile than young people are. Population aging thus means more people would be trapped in locations affected by a shock, preventing the economy from smoothing out spatial differences in labor market outcomes. However, the existence of a large share of immobile workers may mitigate their welfare effects by delaying the capital supply adjustment that would be caused by a flow of workers. In order to study how population aging affects the welfare effects of a local shock, this paper develops a dynamic spatial specific-factor model with demographics that change dynamically depending on fertility rates. Individuals decide where to live and whether to work. Their choices vary over the life cycle because the expected working lifetime and fundamentals (e.g., mobility costs) vary with demographic factors. Hence, aggregate labor adjustment depends on the economy’s age structure. Forward-looking landlords accumulate location-specific capital, and the dynamics of labor and capital interact with each other. I apply the model to Japan and find that population aging can mitigate the welfare loss of workers in a location affected by a negative shock.