要旨：We study the role of history and expectations in the spatial economy by exploiting the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, which destroyed its city center but spared its outskirts. By newly digitizing granular data on economic distribution in the city of Hiroshima, we first demonstrate the startling history-independence that the city’s center strongly recovered only about five years after being completely destroyed. We then evaluate the role of self-fulfilling expectations in the resurgence by developing a dynamic quantitative urban model that incorporates both history and expectations. Our findings suggest that self-fulfilling expectations are quantitatively important in accounting for the resurgence of central Hiroshima despite its catastrophic history.

日時：2023年6月23-25日

Program：https://sites.google.com/site/rudconference/rud-2023/program