Title: Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth

Abstract：We study structural change in production networks for intermediate inputs (input-output network) and new capital (investment network). For each network, we document that the share of output produced by goods sectors has declined since the 1950s, offset by a rising fraction of production by services sectors. We develop a multi-sector growth model to study these trends and show that our framework admits an aggregate balanced growth path with such structural change. Calibrating the model using disaggregated expenditure-side price data for the United States, we find that inputs to intermediates production are complements. However, in contrast to existing literature, we find that inputs to investment production are substitutes. Hence, structural change in production networks implies that resources endogenously reallocate to the slowest growing intermediates producers and the fastest growing investment producers. As a result, we show that investment-specific technical change accounts for an increasing share of U.S. aggregate growth, rising from 30-40% of growth prior to the 1980s to more than 70% since the year 2000. In addition, more than 20% of aggregate growth after 2000 stems from endogenous reallocation induced by structural change. At the same time, productivity growth within the input-output network has stagnated, accounting for the bulk of the recent slowdown in aggregate growth.

参加を希望される方は8月7日（水）までに noriko(at)kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp までご連絡ください。

If you would like to attend, please contact noriko(at)kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp by Wednesday, August 7.

Program (PDF)

【Paper】

Abstract: We explore the impact of public school assignment reforms by building a households’ school choice model with two key features—(1) endogenous residential location choice and (2) opt-out to outside schooling options. Households decide where to live taking into account that locations determine access-to-school—admissions probabilities and commuting distances to schools. Households are heterogeneous both in observed and unobserved characteristics. We estimate the model using administrative data from New York City’s middle school choice system. Variation from a boundary discontinuity design separately identifies preferences for access-to-school from other location amenities. Residential sorting based on access-to-school preference explains 30% of the gap in test scores of schools attended by minority students versus their peers. If households’ residential locations were fixed, a reform that introduces purely lottery-based admissions to schools in lower- and mid-Manhattan would reduce the cross-racial gap by 7%. However, households’ endogenous location choices dampen the effect by half.