Title: Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth

Abstract：We study structural change in production networks for intermediate inputs (input-output network) and new capital (investment network). For each network, we document that the share of output produced by goods sectors has declined since the 1950s, offset by a rising fraction of production by services sectors. We develop a multi-sector growth model to study these trends and show that our framework admits an aggregate balanced growth path with such structural change. Calibrating the model using disaggregated expenditure-side price data for the United States, we find that inputs to intermediates production are complements. However, in contrast to existing literature, we find that inputs to investment production are substitutes. Hence, structural change in production networks implies that resources endogenously reallocate to the slowest growing intermediates producers and the fastest growing investment producers. As a result, we show that investment-specific technical change accounts for an increasing share of U.S. aggregate growth, rising from 30-40% of growth prior to the 1980s to more than 70% since the year 2000. In addition, more than 20% of aggregate growth after 2000 stems from endogenous reallocation induced by structural change. At the same time, productivity growth within the input-output network has stagnated, accounting for the bulk of the recent slowdown in aggregate growth.

参加を希望される方は8月7日（水）までに noriko(at)kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp までご連絡ください。

If you would like to attend, please contact noriko(at)kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp by Wednesday, August 7.

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