Abstract：Exploiting variation across Swedish local labor markets between 1986 and 2018, I estimate that individuals are less likely to start new firms and switch employers in an older labor market. To account for these patterns, I propose an equilibrium theory of growth with frictional labor markets. On the one hand, workforce aging raises the level of output by increasing the share of people who have found a good match with existing production technologies. On the other hand, the higher opportunity cost of switching to new technologies discourages their introduction. The offsetting level and growth effects result in high growth through the 1990s, even though the rate at which new technologies are introduced declines monotonically since the 1970s. I estimate that it will be suppressed for the next 30 years. The lower growth rate in the older economy lowers welfare for labor market entrants, but raises the value of the high-productive jobs typically held by older individuals.

Abstract：Using household survey data for the U.S. and Australia, we quantify the role of taxes and transfers in providing consumption insurance against income risk. While the two countries differ substantially in their degree of tax and transfer progressivity and the extent to which it reduces the variability of disposable income, we find using a semi-structural model of income, net taxes, and consumption that the overall role of taxes and transfers in affecting the elasticity of consumption with respect to permanent income shocks is similar, with an estimated 5.4 percentage point reduction for the U.S. versus 4.8 for Australia. We interpret this result using a stylized life-cycle model with incomplete markets. Counterfactual analysis for a calibrated version of the structural model shows that, while higher progressivity increases the role of taxes in providing consumption insurance, these effects are partially mitigated by less self-insurance given higher marginal tax rates. The level of wealth relative to income also reduces the effects of progressivity on consumption insurance. Thus, higher wealth-to-income ratios in Australia can explain why, despite higher progressivity, the impact of taxes and transfers on consumption insurance is similar to the U.S.

要旨：　Diagnostic tests for regression discontinuity design face a size-control problem. We document a massive over-rejection of the identifying restriction among empirical studies in the top five economics journals. At least one diagnostic test was rejected for 21 out of 60 studies, whereas less than 5% of the collected 799 tests rejected the null hypotheses. In other words, more than one-third of the studies rejected at least one of their diagnostic tests, whereas their underlying identifying restrictions appear valid. Multiple testing causes this problem because the median number of tests per study was as high as 12. Therefore, we offer unified tests to overcome the size-control problem. Our procedure is based on the new joint asymptotic normality of local polynomial mean and density estimates. In simulation studies, our unified tests outperformed the Bonferroni correction.

＜Workshop on Search and Platform ご案内＞

日時：2024年10月29日（火）8:55-16:50
会場：CIGS会議室もしくは新丸ビルコンファレンススクエア　Room 901
（東京都千代田区丸の内1-5-1 新丸ビル 9F）
https://www.marunouchi.com/page/access/access_shinmaru/

参加費：無料
言語：英語 ≪同時通訳はありません≫

オーガナイザー：渡辺誠（京都大学経済研究所、CIGS 上席研究員）

プログラムのURL：こちらをご参照ください。

＜登録方法＞
参加希望の方は、以下の申込フォームからご登録ください。（締切：10月17日）
https://forms.gle/NGCjz68StjaQUAe87

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南幸子
一般財団法人キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
〒100-6511　東京都千代田区丸の内1-5-1
　　　　　　　　 新丸の内ビルディング11F
TEL:03-6213-0550　FAX:03-3217-1251
minami.sachiko@canon-igs.org

——————————————————————————-

<The Workshop on Search and Platform>
Date：2024, October 29th（Tuesday）8:55-16:50
Location: CIGS meeting room or Shin-Marunouchi Building Room 901, SHIN-MARU CONFERENCE SQUARE, 9th Floor
(1-5-1 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo)
https://www.marunouchi.com/en/building/shinmaru/information-access/

Participation Fee：Free
Capacity: 35 participants *The registration will be closed if we receive too many applications.
Organizer: Makoto Watanabe (CIGS senior researcher)

Link：https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iqb9wUNZ6JFcIOyg8zd-anuWSbv_NxkL/view

<How to register>
If you wish to participate in this conference, please register through the following application form. (Application Deadline: October 17)
https://forms.gle/NGCjz68StjaQUAe87

After your registration is complete, you will receive an auto-reply from the form.
If you do not receive the email, please check your spam mail folder.
If you want to change some items after your registration, please email us with the detailed information.

[CIGS Secretariat] (Reception hours: 9:00-17:30 on weekdays)
TEL: +81-3-6213-0550 (Representative)
Mail: minami.sachiko@canon-igs.org

Title: Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth

Abstract：We study structural change in production networks for intermediate inputs (input-output network) and new capital (investment network). For each network, we document that the share of output produced by goods sectors has declined since the 1950s, offset by a rising fraction of production by services sectors. We develop a multi-sector growth model to study these trends and show that our framework admits an aggregate balanced growth path with such structural change. Calibrating the model using disaggregated expenditure-side price data for the United States, we find that inputs to intermediates production are complements. However, in contrast to existing literature, we find that inputs to investment production are substitutes. Hence, structural change in production networks implies that resources endogenously reallocate to the slowest growing intermediates producers and the fastest growing investment producers. As a result, we show that investment-specific technical change accounts for an increasing share of U.S. aggregate growth, rising from 30-40% of growth prior to the 1980s to more than 70% since the year 2000. In addition, more than 20% of aggregate growth after 2000 stems from endogenous reallocation induced by structural change. At the same time, productivity growth within the input-output network has stagnated, accounting for the bulk of the recent slowdown in aggregate growth.