発表内容：
　　『Academist における学術と社会をつなぐ多様なチャレンジ』
　　講演者：柴藤亮介 株式会社アカデミスト 代表取締役 CEO
　　『京都大学 iPS研究所におけるファンドレージングの歴史と展望』
　　講演者：渡邉文隆 公益財団法人京都大学 iPS細胞研究財団特命専門業務職員
　　（前同財団社会連携室長）

RLiu-short bio-112024

Abstract:
Advanced data acquisition technology nowadays has often made inferences from diverse data sources easily accessible. Fusion learning refers to fusing inferences from multiple sources or studies to make more effective overall inference. We focus on the tasks: 1) Whether/When to combine inferences? 2) How to combine inferences efficiently? 3) How to combine inference to enhance the inference for a target study? We present a general framework for nonparametric and efficient fusion learning. The main tool underlying this framework is the new notion of depth confidence distribution (depth-CD), developed by combining data depth, bootstrap and confidence distributions. We show that a depth-CD is an omnibus form of confidence regions, whose contours of level sets shrink toward the true parameter value, and thus an all-encompassing inferential tool. The approach is efficient, general and robust, and readily applies to heterogeneous studies with a broad range of complex settings. The approach is demonstrated with an aviation safety analysis application in tracking aircraft landing performance.

This is joint work with Dungang Liu (U. Cincinnati) and Minge Xie (Rutgers University).

Abstract：The Asia and Pacific region has enjoyed rapid economic and human development gains in the past three decades. Though it has benefited from demographic tailwinds, investment and productivity growth are the key to these gains. The critical role of structural transformation, that is, workers moving out of agriculture into other, higher-productivity sectors in achieving productivity growth, is often underappreciated. Movement into manufacturing in particular, helped by rapid international trade integration, has been a hallmark of the structural transformation in the region. However, services have played a bigger role across the region in the past three decades. Looking ahead, enabling continued transformation will be critical. As per capita incomes have risen, the move into services will likely become even more prominent. Ensuring a shift toward more productive services will require investment in education and training to supply the needed skills, especially to allow workers to adapt to the wave of new technologies, including AI. Continued international integration in services would be key, with an eye on boosting tradability and competition in services. In many economies, enhancing agricultural productivity will still be important for promoting transformation and growth, along with lowering barriers to workers and resources moving across sectors. Policies to raise labor force participation, especially among elderly workers and women, will be critical for mitigating the impact of population aging and decline in much of the region.

このたび、IMF（国際通貨基金）のスタッフやエコノミスト等が京都大学に来訪し、国際的なマクロ経済政策におけるIMFの役割、業務や採用等について説明（日本語・英語）を行います。どなたでもご参加いただけます。

•  – Introduction to IMF’s work, with a focus on Asia and the Pacific Region
   – IMF as your future workplace
• 参加希望者は、こちらのフォームより登録の上、ご参加ください。（https://forms.gle/ms1oeCMJ4mfNrLPt6）

なお、同日15:00～16:30にはIMFのエコノミストによる研究発表がマクロ経済学セミナーで実施されます（於：経済研究所本館409）。そちらもぜひご参加ください。
セミナーの詳細はこちら（https://www.econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp/about/seminars/41528/）

後援：京都大学経済研究所、京都大学キャリアサポートセンター
公式HPはこちら（https://www.career.gakusei.kyoto-u.ac.jp/events/evnt/20241119/）

学内問合せ先： 京都大学経済研究所先端政策分析研究センター 谷 直起（tani.naoki.4z[at]kyoto-u.ac.jp）

Abstract：Exploiting variation across Swedish local labor markets between 1986 and 2018, I estimate that individuals are less likely to start new firms and switch employers in an older labor market. To account for these patterns, I propose an equilibrium theory of growth with frictional labor markets. On the one hand, workforce aging raises the level of output by increasing the share of people who have found a good match with existing production technologies. On the other hand, the higher opportunity cost of switching to new technologies discourages their introduction. The offsetting level and growth effects result in high growth through the 1990s, even though the rate at which new technologies are introduced declines monotonically since the 1970s. I estimate that it will be suppressed for the next 30 years. The lower growth rate in the older economy lowers welfare for labor market entrants, but raises the value of the high-productive jobs typically held by older individuals.

Abstract：Using household survey data for the U.S. and Australia, we quantify the role of taxes and transfers in providing consumption insurance against income risk. While the two countries differ substantially in their degree of tax and transfer progressivity and the extent to which it reduces the variability of disposable income, we find using a semi-structural model of income, net taxes, and consumption that the overall role of taxes and transfers in affecting the elasticity of consumption with respect to permanent income shocks is similar, with an estimated 5.4 percentage point reduction for the U.S. versus 4.8 for Australia. We interpret this result using a stylized life-cycle model with incomplete markets. Counterfactual analysis for a calibrated version of the structural model shows that, while higher progressivity increases the role of taxes in providing consumption insurance, these effects are partially mitigated by less self-insurance given higher marginal tax rates. The level of wealth relative to income also reduces the effects of progressivity on consumption insurance. Thus, higher wealth-to-income ratios in Australia can explain why, despite higher progressivity, the impact of taxes and transfers on consumption insurance is similar to the U.S.

要旨：　Diagnostic tests for regression discontinuity design face a size-control problem. We document a massive over-rejection of the identifying restriction among empirical studies in the top five economics journals. At least one diagnostic test was rejected for 21 out of 60 studies, whereas less than 5% of the collected 799 tests rejected the null hypotheses. In other words, more than one-third of the studies rejected at least one of their diagnostic tests, whereas their underlying identifying restrictions appear valid. Multiple testing causes this problem because the median number of tests per study was as high as 12. Therefore, we offer unified tests to overcome the size-control problem. Our procedure is based on the new joint asymptotic normality of local polynomial mean and density estimates. In simulation studies, our unified tests outperformed the Bonferroni correction.