14:00～15:00
“The Consequences of Hometown Regiment: What Happened in Hometown When the Soldiers Never Returned?”
発表者：神林龍　武蔵大学経済学部教授

15:00～16:00
Title：「戦後日本における国際産業政策の変遷：国会会議録テキストによる『産業協力』の分析」
発表者：安橋正人　奈良女子大学研究院生活環境科学系准教授、経済研究所先端政策分析研究センター特命准教授

Abstract：Output dynamics and private sector access vary across sovereign debt restructurings with foreign private creditors. We compile data on sovereigns’ private sector borrowing from sovereign’ foreign creditor chair countries in 1977–2020. We find that (i) sovereigns with high private sector borrowing from sovereigns’ creditor chair countries choose a preemptive restructuring; (ii) private sector borrowing from sovereigns’ creditor chair countries declines mildly in preemptive restructurings while sharply in post-default restructurings. We build sovereign debt model with endogenous choice of preemptive and post-default renegotiations, output dynamics and private sector access. Our model quantitatively shows that the sovereign’s choice of preemptive or post-default restructuring affects differently the foreign creditor’s net worth and lending to the sovereign’s private sector, and, in turn, this results in different output dynamics. Data support theoretical predictions.