JP

Faculty

Kazuo Nishimura
Kazuo Nishimura
Role
Specially Appointed Professor
Field
Complexity Economics
Degree
Ph.D.
CV

About my research

“Articles published in English as of June 21, 2021, total number: 191; WoS publications: 134

My specialty is in the field of nonlinear equilibrium dynamics or complexity economics. Since writing my doctoral dissertation at the University of Rochester and publishing a pioneering paper in the field in 1979, I have consistently studied the dynamic analysis of economic growth paths in macroeconomic models, particularly theories that explain business cycle fluctuations. I have also extended the analysis obtained in closed economies to the analysis of international linkages of business cycle fluctuations in international trade models. In the 1980s, I analyzed conditions for cycles in continuous-time models and in discrete-time models, which were published in the Journal of Economic Theory. In the 1990s, I studied in detail the conditions for chaos in an optimal growth model, and published them in the Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrica. Since 2000, I have been analyzing properties of dynamic equilibria such as chaos and m indeterminacy in models in international trade and endogenous growth models. Also, I have invested my time on the economics of education as an empirical study of human capital, writing papers on school and home education and serving as a member of the Board of Education and advisor to the Board of Education to implement my research in society.

Selected publications

1.

“The Hopf Bifurcation and the Existence and the Stability of Closed Orbits in Multi-Sector Models of Economic Growth,” (with Jess Benhabib), Journal of Economic Theory, vol.21, pp.421-444, 1979

Summary

Since it is known that in the continuous-time optimal growth model, the optimal solution is never a cycle when there is only one type of capital good, it was generally an open question in 1978 whether the continuous-time model optimal solution could be a cycle. This paper settled the issue by proving the existence of limit cycles in a three-sector economic model consisting of Cobb-Douglas production functions with more than one type of capital good. The paper uses the fact that limit cycles diverge when the stationary solution changes from a saddle point to fully unstable. It is regarded as the most important pioneering paper in the field of nonlinear economic dynamics.

2.

“A Complete Characterization of Optimal Growth Paths in an Aggregative Model with a Non-Concave Production Function,” (with Davis Dechert), Journal of Economic Theory, vol.31, pp.332-354, 1983

Summary

The paper analyzes the behavior of the optimal solution in a discrete-time optimal growth model where the production function is S-shaped with a fugitive harvest portion. The paper proves that there exists a certain critical point in the capital stock, and that convergence to a positive steady-state solution is optimal from an initial capital stock larger than that point, and convergence to zero from a lower initial capital stock as capital is eaten up. Since the production function is not a concave function, the Euler equations and the transversality condition do not guarantee optimality, it was necessary to analyze the behavior of the optimal solution in a new way. In the end, the method used in this paper, which succeeded in completely analyzing the behavior of the optimal solution, contributed greatly to the subsequent development of nonlinear economic dynamics. As a pioneering paper, it has been cited in many papers.”

3.

“Competitive Equilibrium Cycles,” (with Jess Benhabib), Journal of Economic Theory, vol.35, pp.284-306, 1985

Summary

This paper proves that the sign of the cross derivative of the utility function determines whether the solution of the discrete-time optimal model takes a monotonic or oscillating path. The sign of the cross-differentiation is determined solely by the magnitude of the factor intensities between the sectors in the case of a two-sector model with a linear utility function. This paper is capable of making economic sense of situations in which complex phenomena such as chaos arise, and together with papers 1 and 2 above, it is regarded as the most important pioneering paper in nonlinear economic dynamics.

4.

“Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos in Optimal Growth: An Example,” (with Makoto Yano)、 Econometrica 63, pp.981-1001, 1995

Summary

This paper is an example of a two-sector infinite horizon model in which the production function of each sector is a Leontiev function, and it is the first to obtain sufficient conditions under which the optimal solution is chaotic, using the well-known utility function and production function examples. Moreover no matter how close the discount factor is to 1, the optimal solution can be chaotic by changing other parameters.

5.

“On the Least Upper Bound of Discount Factors that are Compatible with Optimal Period-Three Cycles,” (with Makoto Yano), Journal of Economic Theory 69, pp.306-333, 1996

Summary

“Period Three implies Chaos,” a well-known paper by Li and Yorke, has focused on period three solutions in relation to chaos. This paper proves that in an optimal growth model, if the optimal solution is a periodic solution with period three, then the upper bound of the discount factor is . While in the paper 4 above we showed that the optimal solution can be chaotic for any discount factor, this paper is an important paper that proves that the value of the discount factor is limited if one assumes the existence of periodic solutions with a particular period.

6.

“Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns,” (with Jess Benhabib), Journal of Economic Theory 81, pp.58-96, 1998

Summary

The introduction of expectations and externalities of economic agents into the infinite period dynamic model drew attention to the indeterminacy of equilibrium, meaning that there are an infinite number of equilibrium paths from the same initial point. Until then, the indeterminacy of equilibrium required that the production function was increasing returns to scale. This paper proved that even under a constant returns to scale production function in a two-sector model, equilibrium is indeterminate under certain conditions regarding the capital intensity between sectors when there are externalities, and had a major impact on the direction of subsequent research on indeterminacy.

7.

“Indeterminacy Under Constant Returns to Scale in Multisector Economies,” (with Jess Benhabib and Qinglai Meng), Econometrica 68, pp.1541-48, 2000

Summary

The endogenous growth theory by Lucas and Romer has been in the limelight since the late 1980s. This model is a development of the 1965 Uzawa model. This paper with proves the indeterminacy of the equilibrium growth path of the endogenous growth model without assuming increasing returns in the production function. The condition is expressed using capital intensity. Along with paper 6 above, this paper is regarded as the most important paper on indeterminacy.

8.

“Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model,” (with Koji Shimomura), Journal of Economic Theory 105, pp.244-259, 2002

Summary

This is a two-country international trade model that maximizes utility over an infinite period of time and analyzes dynamic equilibrium paths. It proves that when each country’s industry consists of two sectors and the production function has an externality, the equilibrium is indeterministic under certain conditions on capital intensity. It is regarded as the first paper to prove equilibrium indeterminacy in a two-country dynamic model of international trade.

9.

“Stability of Stochastic Optimal Growth Models: a New Approach,” (with John Stachurski), Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.22, pp.100-118, 2005

Summary

This paper proves that the per capita income distribution converges to a unique stationary distribution in an optimal growth model under uncertainty. The paper gives a significantly simpler proof than previous methods and weakens assumptions made in previous literature, such as the concavity of the production function, the boundedness of the distribution of productivity shocks, and the Inada condition at 0. The paper is regarded as a breakthrough in the field of optimal problems under uncertainty.

10.

“Kazuo Nishimura and Tadashi Yagi (2019), “Happiness and Self-Determination – An Empirical Study in Japan””, Review of Behavioral Economics: Vol. 6: No. 4, pp 385-419
http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/105.00000113

Summary

According to the United Nations World Happiness Report, the level of happiness in Japan is not very high, and “”freedom of choice in life”” tends to be low. Since the 1970s, one of the important themes in the study of happiness has been that “”happiness is not necessarily correlated with income level””. We analyzed 20,000 Japanese subjects by asking them various questions in a questionnaire, using income, education, health, personal relationships, and self-determination as explanatory variables. The results showed that “”self-determination”” had a stronger influence than “”income”” and “”education”” as determinants of happiness, following “”health”” and “”relationships””. In Japanese society, where freedom of life choice is considered low, it is noteworthy that people with high levels of self-determination have higher levels of happiness.

11.

“Japan’s R&D capabilities have been decimated by reduced class hours for science and math subjects,” (with Dai Miyamoto and Tadashi Yagi) Humanities & Social Sciences Communications, Springer Nature, 2022, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01234-0

Summary

In this study, by utilizing data from two surveys conducted in 2016 and 2020, we examined whether or not the changes in the number of hours of science and mathematics classes over the past 50 years have had an impact on R&D activities since becoming a researcher. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between the number of class hours for science and mathematics in junior high school, which changed every 10 years, and the R&D output after becoming an R&D engineer, such as the number of patent applications, the number of patent renewals, the number of presentations at academic conferences, and the number of papers published in academic journals. Comparing the results of the previous survey with those of the current survey, we found that there was a change in the number of patents between generations that could not be explained by differences in age, and that this change was correlated with the number of hours spent in science and mathematics classes in junior high school.

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