15:00〜17:00
文部科学省科学技術・学術政策研究所
本館4階第1共同研究室
16:30〜18:00
【参考資料】
要旨:We first provide an overview of the latest estimates of Japan’s population from the eighth century to the mid-nineteenth century and confirm that Japan experienced a sharp fall in population from the ninth to the twelfth centuries and a modest decrease in the early eighteenth century. We next review institutional changes that accompanied population growth from the fourteenth century and the population stagnation in the eighteenth century, and conclude that the current stem family system in Japan, where the duty of support is mutual between parents and children, was formed in the eighteenth century as a response to aging.
17:00〜18:30
What can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?
16:45〜18:15
Distributional Effects with Two-Sided Measurement Error: An Application to Intergenerational Income Mobility∗ (joint with Brantly Callaway, Irina Murtazashvili, Emmanuel S. Tsyawo)
Abstract: This paper considers identification and estimation of distributional effect parameters that depend on the
joint distribution of an outcome and another variable of interest (“treatment”) in a setting with “two-
sided” measurement error — that is, where both variables are possibly measured with error. Examples
of these parameters in the context of intergenerational income mobility include transition matrices, rank-
rank correlations, and the poverty rate of children as a function of their parents’ income, among others.
Building on recent work on quantile regression (QR) with measurement error in the outcome (particu-
larly, Hausman, Liu, Luo, and Palmer (2021)), we show that, given (i) two linear QR models separately
for the outcome and treatment conditional on other observed covariates and (ii) assumptions about the
measurement error for each variable, one can recover the joint distribution of the outcome and the treat-
ment. Besides these conditions, our approach does not require an instrument, repeated measurements,
or distributional assumptions about the measurement error. Using recent data from the 1997 National
Longitudinal Study of Youth, we find that accounting for measurement error notably reduces several
estimates of intergenerational mobility parameters.
11:30〜12:30
17:00〜18:30
10:00〜12:30
17:00〜18:30
16:45〜18:15
Abstract: This talk will survey recent advances in understanding Chatterjee’s graph correlation coefficient. I will introduce, for the first time, a comprehensive theoretical framework for statistical inference based on this coefficient. The framework involves results on asymptotic normality, bias correction, and the (in)consistency of bootstrap methods.